Is the Flu Finally Fading? Don't Breathe Easy Just Yet.
While flu cases are starting to dip, experts warn we're not out of the woods. A grim reminder of the virus's persistence came with the news of 15 more child deaths from the flu in the week ending January 10th, bringing the total pediatric fatalities to 32.
And this is the part most people miss: even though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports an 18% drop in confirmed cases compared to the previous week, along with decreases in doctor visits and hospitalizations, influenza deaths actually rose by 2%.
The CDC estimates a staggering 18 million flu cases so far this season, with 230,000 hospitalizations and 9,300 deaths. Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University School of Public Health, cautiously notes, “It seems like there is some cautious good news that cases are declining, but I’m going to put a giant asterisk on this because that does not mean the worst is behind us.”
Last year, we saw a similar dip before a second peak hit in February, a worrying precedent.
The national trend masks regional variations. Beth Carlton, a public health professor at the University of Colorado, explains, “We are not going to all experience this at the same time…Nationwide, the trend is going down, but there may be differences in different states and communities as this virus runs its course.”
But here's where it gets controversial: While flu often starts in densely populated areas like New York City before spreading to rural regions, Carlton warns, “the challenge with flu is that it is incredibly nimble, so it does not always behave the way we expect.” This unpredictability makes it difficult to pinpoint exactly when and where outbreaks will occur.
Despite the overall decline, flu and other winter illnesses like norovirus, Covid, and strep throat are forcing school closures in states like Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia, even in areas with seemingly low overall case numbers.
The situation varies widely across the country. Idaho, New Mexico, New York, and parts of Appalachia are still battling very high flu levels, while Montana, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming report lower numbers. Carlton highlights the severity of this season, stating, “The amount of people hospitalized for influenza around New Year’s was really high, the second highest in the past 10 years, with last year being the highest.”
This year's particularly brutal flu season is fueled by a highly mutated strain of influenza A called H3N2 subclade K. This strain has key mutations that make it less similar to the strain used in this year’s flu vaccine. Jennifer Nuzzo points out that influenza-like illnesses, including RSV and Covid, are also surging, creating a perfect storm for respiratory illnesses.
Should we have seen this coming? Experts had expressed concern earlier that the flu vaccine might not be a good match against subclade K. However, recent research offers a glimmer of hope, suggesting the current vaccine is still effective against this variant. The current flu shot protects against three strains: two A strains (H1N1 and H3N2) and one B strain. Nuzzo emphasizes, “With this K clade, we can still say the flu vaccine is helpful, especially for keeping you out of the hospital.”
Last year's flu season was the deadliest for children since the CDC began tracking pediatric deaths, with 289 fatalities surpassing even the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Nuzzo reflects, “That double hump last flu season clearly had consequences…I will take any decrease in flu that we have, but we cannot say the worst is behind us.”
A concerning statistic emerges from the CDC report: among children eligible for the flu shot with known vaccination status, a staggering 90% of pediatric deaths occurred in unvaccinated children.
This raises a crucial question: With the CDC's recent change in guidance no longer recommending flu shots for all children, are we potentially putting more children at risk?
What are your thoughts? Do you think the CDC's new guidance on flu shots for children is a step in the right direction, or does it pose a potential danger? Let us know in the comments below.
