The West Bank's annexation by Israel has triggered a chilling warning: 'Jordan is next'. This move, a 'silent transfer', signals a potential shift in the region's geopolitical landscape, leaving Jordan's future in question.
For years, the idea of Jordan becoming a Palestinian state was dismissed as a far-fetched conspiracy. But now, with a right-wing Israeli government and the Gaza conflict, this concept is alarmingly close to reality. The Israeli cabinet's decision to register parts of the West Bank as 'state land' is a game-changer, bypassing the military administration and treating it as Israeli territory.
Jordan's former deputy prime minister, Mamdouh al-Abbadi, warns that this annexation is the final nail in the coffin for the status quo. With the Israeli military's operations in Jenin and Tulkarem, the forced transfer of Palestinians is no longer a distant threat but an imminent reality. Al-Abbadi predicts a 'silent transfer', where life in the West Bank becomes unbearable, forcing Palestinians to flee to Jordan.
But here's where it gets controversial. The decision to transfer land registration to the Israeli Justice Ministry is seen as a critical step in this forced exodus. By removing Jordanian and Ottoman land records, Israel paves the way for massive settlement expansion, erasing Palestinian property rights. Al-Abbadi highlights a symbolic yet ominous change in the Israeli military's naming, with a new brigade named Gilead, a region near Amman, suggesting a broader territorial ambition.
The Israeli Finance Minister's ideology, embraced by the state, further fuels this fire. It signals a permanent shift in Israeli consensus, rendering the 1994 Wadi Araba Treaty meaningless. This raises the question: is Israel's strategy now 'us or them', leaving no room for compromise?
Jordan's military options are now in the spotlight. The Jordan Valley, a fertile strip separating the banks, is the frontline of an 'existential defence'. Major-General (retired) Mamoun Abu Nowar warns of an 'undeclared war' and suggests drastic measures if displacement continues, including declaring the Jordan Valley a closed military zone, a move that could ignite regional tensions.
However, the disparity in military power is acknowledged, and Israel's success is not guaranteed due to Jordan's unique social structure. Yet, the situation is volatile, and a religious conflict in the West Bank could trigger a 'regional earthquake'.
Adding to Jordan's woes is the perceived abandonment by its long-time ally, the United States. The 'Jordanian option' was once a cornerstone of US policy, but this strategic bet has crumbled. The US, dazzled by financial gains, has shifted its regional focus, and even under the Biden administration, Jordanian interests are sacrificed for Israel.
Jordan's diplomatic isolation is further exacerbated by its relationship with the Palestinian Authority (PA). Al-Rantawi argues that Jordan's exclusive ties with the PA in Ramallah, while shunning Hamas, was a strategic blunder. This stance has left Jordan with limited leverage, potentially due to internal fears of empowering the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Jordanian elite now calls for action, not just words. The kingdom has reinstated compulsory military service, and al-Abbadi advocates for universal conscription and cultural preparedness, including teaching Hebrew. As Israel rewrites land ownership in the West Bank, Jordan stands alone, facing its most vulnerable moment since 1967. The world may condemn, but Israel acts, leaving Jordan to ponder its next move in this high-stakes game.
